“Twenty-two percent of Americans doubt that the Holocaust ever occurred,” blasted a news statement in 1993. How could this be? How could so many doubt the occurrence of one of the most significant events of the twentieth century—and, perhaps, of all time? The answer lies in the poll, or survey, itself and in the difficulty of communicating with language, which always produces some degree of imprecision. The question actually asked by the Roper Organization was as follows:
Does it seem possible or does it seem impossible to you that the Nazi extermination of the Jews never happened?
Among the respondents, 22% said “it seemed possible” and another 12% said they did not know. Only 65% said it was “impossible it never happened.” The double negative in the question, it seems, confused the respondents to the point that they were not sure how to phrase their answers. Picking up on this point, the Gallup Organization conducted a follow-up poll that asked the question in more detailed form:
The term Holocaust usually refers to the killing of millions of Jews in Nazi death camps during World War II. In your opinion, did the Holocaust: definitely happen, probably happen, probably not happen, or definitely not happen?
Among the respondents to this poll, 83% said the Holocaust definitely happened and another 13% said it probably happened. Only 1% said it definitely did not happen. Quite a difference! In a separate poll, Gallup asked the Roper question again and found that 37% of the respondents said it seemed possible that it never happened.
Polls and surveys increasingly guide political, research, and business decisions, but they can be highly volatile and are little understood. An excellent study of current trends in collecting and using data is the book Tainted Truth: The Manipulation of Fact in America by Cynthia Crossen (1994, p. 14), in which she points out that
We are skeptical about statistical and factual information, but not as skeptical as we think. . . . we respect numbers and we cannot help believing them. Yet, more and more of the information we use to buy, elect, advise, acquit and heal has been created not to expand our knowledge but to sell a product or advance a cause. That’s what surveys do, they basically manufacture news.
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